Sold comps vs. asking prices: what each one can—and cannot—tell you
A seller can ask any price. A completed sale shows what one buyer actually paid. Both are useful signals, but neither should be mistaken for a perfect market value by itself.
Asking prices show expectations
Active listings tell you what sellers hope to receive and what inventory is currently available. They can help establish an upper range, identify scarcity, and show how aggressively sellers are pricing a product. But a listing that never sells is not evidence that buyers accept that price.
Sold comps show transactions
Completed sales are usually stronger evidence of realized value because a buyer and seller actually agreed to a price. Even then, one sale can be unusual. Condition, shipping, bundles, auction timing, seller reputation, and regional differences can all affect the result.
Match like with like
Raw and graded cards should not be mixed casually. Different grades should stay separate, and sealed products should be compared with the same configuration. A booster bundle is not a booster box, and a PSA 10 should not be averaged with a PSA 9 just because the card name matches.
Recency matters
A six-month-old sale can be useful history but weak evidence for today’s market. New releases, reprints, competitive play, grading population, and collector demand can move prices quickly.
Use a range, not a magic number
A practical estimate usually benefits from several recent, comparable observations rather than a single point. KAIUKI is designed to keep the source type visible and show confidence when evidence is thin instead of manufacturing precision.